Chapter 18 Estimating the Hazard Ratio What is the hazard?
Chapter 18 Estimating the Hazard Ratio What is the hazard?
Hazard Ratio Calculator - Calculate Hazard Ratio, HR ...
Calculate Sample Size Needed to Test Time-To-Event Data ...
Hazard Ratio Real Statistics Using Excel
Odds Ratio, Hazard Ratio and Relative Risk
Hazard Ratio - an overview ScienceDirect Topics
How to interpret the value of 'Hazard Ratio" in practice ...
hazard.ratio: Function to estimate the hazard ratio ...
How to Calculate Hazard Ratio Sciencing
Tutorial about Hazard Ratios - Students 4 Best Evidence
how to calculate hazard ratio
how to calculate hazard ratio - win
How to calculate hazard ratio of death if I have no. of deaths and median OS?
Hi guys, I am trying to do a meta-analysis in patients with cancer. A lot of the older trials have not reported the hazard ratio (95% CI) However, those have reported the number of deaths in each arm, the median OS in months, and the kaplan meier curves. Is there any way we can get a rough estimate of the the hazard ratio from either of those data points? Any help would be much appreciated. Thank you
I guess I’m what you’d call an addict. Junkie, even. Alcohol? No, I don’t touch the stuff. I drink it, hahaha. Don’t need hands to do that, hence the punchline. Drugs? I mean, I dabble. Recreationally. Whatever you got, if it’s free, I’ll shoot it up, lick it, smoke it, stick under my eyelid, snort it right into my aorta. And I’m not particularly picky either. Captain Cody, Skag, Mud, Fidgeridoo, Herbal Speedball, Organ Oil, Demmies, Miss Emma, Kickers, Mrs. O, Yog-Sothamines, XTC, Sneeze, R-Balls; if you have them, I’ll take them. Still not addicted to the stuff though. No, my one and only addiction is exceedingly simple, yet intolerably hard to satisfy; FUCKED UP SHIT. I’m not talking about your everyday dark web snuff mind you. I need the real deal. Something about my brain's incapability to shoot me up with dopamine, oxytocin, serotonin and endorphins (the D.O.S.E), according to several online doctors. So it’s a medical thing. Still haven’t scored a prescription for it though. In any case, my medical condition forces me to deep dive into the fuckiest corners of society. You have your dark underground clubs, murder parties, subteranean sickofests, torture theatres, decapitation diners, and the odd organ orgies, but what I really enjoy, what makes my D.O.S.E overflow, is the ones you never hear about. The ones you have to find. No invitations, no RSVPs. One day they just pop up like a popcorn baby, and before you know it, they’re gone. I’ve been to a few of these over the years, and they never disappoint. I already told you about the Baby Killer Incident, yeah? Then you know what I’m talking about. Fucked up shit! I happened upon this particular one by Chance. Chance being this stripper I know that’s into some ritualistic cannibalism or other (I don’t ask), and long story short she knew the sicko who was hosting the event. I was hesitant at first, this particular sicko placing fairly high on my shitlist of sickos, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and all. Not to mention that my D.O.S.E-withdrawals were flaring up, making me in essence nothing more than a shivering sack of suicidal human tissue on the best of days. So there I was in an abandoned mall, shivering sack of suicidal human tissue, idly accepting assorted drugs from random passer-by deviants taking a pity on me, when this guy comes up to me, all dressed up in a pink hazmat suit with a freaky unicorn horn (which, when I look back on it, was probably a massive drill-shaped dildo) stuck to his helmet, and he goes Hey Tilly (that’s my name, Tilly), Hey Tilly, he says. I hear you like fucked up shit. Man, word gets around, I think to myself, but at the same time these loud fucking alarm bells starts going off in my head, accompanied by Soviet Union-amounts of red flags. How the fuck do you know my name? I ask. Your ears, he answers. The guy told me to look for a man with fucked up ears. Well, you found’em, I say, making sure to twirl around all ballerina-like, highlighting my ugly-ass ear-stumps. And what fucking guy gave you my name? That guy, he mumbles idly, not actually pointing to anyone. Say, what happened to them? To who? Your, uh, ears. Oh, that, I say. Sliced them off as a punchline in an elaborate Van Gogh-joke. Well, two seperate jokes, actually. Both Van Gogh-related though. The guy nods, maybe smiles, but I can’t really tell because of the dildo-helmet, and beckons for me to follow him. Now, I don’t normally follow strange men into bathrooms, but sometimes that’s exactly what you should do. I guess learning when to do it, and when not to do it is an integral skill in this setting, but you’ll figure it out one way or another, so don’t worry too much about it. Anyway, into the bathroom we go. Like the rest of the place it’s spotless, meaning there isn’t a single fucking spot that isn’t covered in grime or dirt or bodily fluids of some description, and I wrinkle my nose in disgust as the guy waves me into an empty stall at the far end of it. I hesitate momentarily, my mind doing some olympic-levels of mental gymnastics to calculate the risk/reward-ratio of my current situation. I land on an even 50/50 - good enough - and I saunter into the stall, only to realise it’s not a bathroom stall at all. Unexpected, I say, my D.O.S.E-levels elevating ever so slightly. The guy starts descending the winding staircase leading god-knows-where, looking back at me when he notices I’m still just standing there sheepishly. You coming or what? he asks. Fuck no, I think to myself. Yeah, I say. Now, I’m no architect, but I’ll hazard a guess and propose that winding staircases are a rare find in your standard mall bathroom, abandoned or not. This wasn’t always a mall, was it? I ask. Good eye, the guy answers. Used to be a church. I guess capitalism always wins, huh? I just nod, soon enough realising these fucking stairs are neverending, like one of those spirals you see in old movies, you know, when someone is getting hypnotised? Then I think back on this woman I met when I was young. Younger? Time man, it’s always going somewhere, and I never really bothered catching up to it. Anyway, I think back on this woman I bumped into on the street, and how she out of the blue asks me if I’d seen her job, and I was like what the fuck do you mean? I’ve lost my job, she says. It’s always in the last place you look, I note. That’s really helpful, she says unironically. Say, could you help me with something else? What? Do you know, she starts. Do you know how to rewind a winding staircase? I don’t know man, that shit always stuck with me. Some kind of riddle? An elaborate joke? A covert Operation Mindfuck? Escaped lunatic lingo? In any case, that’s how I felt when we descended those stairs. Like I was rewinding a winding staircase. Here we are then, the guy suddenly exclaims, bringing me out of my temporal trip down memory lane. I am wildly underwhelmed at this point, but after letting my eyes get used to the dimly lit basement chamber, I can feel my brain starting to upchuck some good fucking shit into my system. Champagne? the guy asks, beckoning to a rather unbecoming rat-faced girl in the corner to come hither with a tray of alcoholic beverages. Don’t mind if I’m already two steps ahead of you, I think, having snatched a bottle I found sitting by the stairs. I pop it open, and enjoy the weird expressions on their faces as I chug the whole fucking thing in a manner of seconds. Tastes like an aging puke-shit hybrid, but my think-organ seems to enjoy it, and I’m not one to start a fight with my own fucking brain. I watch the two of them trade looks of confusion, realisation, and then something I (falsely) identify as fear, then turn my attention to the tied up naked man at the far end of the room. I think I forgot to mention him, but he was there too. In fact, he was the sole reason my D.O.S.E was elevating - the prospect of some kind of fucked up torture show enough to get my juices flowing. Now what? the girl asks. Do we tell him? Fuck it, the guy says, and then proceeds to bash half of my skull in with a crowbar. You know the part in every fucking action movie where the main character knocks some poor unnamed henchman unconscious? Do you realise how fucking dangerous that is? Concussions are silent killers man. Could’ve inflicted some serious brain damage too. Those fuckers can fuck you up for life. Anyway, I guess I must’ve been out for a few, because when I woke up, I found myself dangling from the ceiling, my body suspended mid-air by some rather sturdy-looking chains. You fucked up royally this time Tilly, the dildo-helmet proposed. If my jaw hadn’t felt like someone had ripped it out, then jammed it back in the wrong way around, I probably would have responded with a witty remark. As circumstances were though, I felt forced to reply with a half-hearted Guh? Let’s show you exactly how much you fucked up, the guy says. My mind slips in and out of what I assume is consciousness, but it’s like my thoughts are torn in half; one side continuously trying to make sense of what I’m seeing, and the other rapidly filling with nausea-inducing dread. Both are fucking screaming though, my stump-ears somehow hearing the inside of my mind lamenting as it drowns slowly in an all-consuming madness. The naked man screams too, but he’s more physical about it. How can a supposedly regular set of lungs contain that much air, I find myself thinking. His skin is a deep shade of red, some of it undoubtedly caused by lack of oxygen, some of it by the ever-growing stream of blood ceaselessly dripping down from his soon-to-be empty eye-socket. Pull it Ems! the guy yells. The rat-faced girl, Ems, has this horrid fucking grin on her face. You know how an old lemon looks, like a really shrivelled up piece of lemon? All wrinkles and browning leathery texture? That was her face. All fucking rotting wrinkled lemon texture smiles. Pull it! Ems got the naked man’s eye firmly gripped between her thumb and index, long dirty fingernails digging into the spongy vitreous, having now pulled it about an inch or so outside of the poor fucker’s socket. And I can just tell by her posture that she’s readying herself for that final, horrible yank. I want to close my eyes so badly at this point, you know, just fucking succumb to the madness my brain is desperately conjuring up to save me, but at the same time I can’t. I physically cannot get my eyelids to work. I don’t know why, but that fucking fact freaks me out more than anything else going on. And then it happens. With a swift, overly dramatic motion, she rips the fucking eye all the way out, and the man’s tormented shrieks reaches sonic levels that transcends human hearing. My ears are ringing, my mind is swirling, and my eyes are itching. Watch this Tilly, the guy says coldly. Watch this fucking shit real closely. And I do. Barely conscious at this point, hanging onto sanity only by fucking ignoring reality as a concept, I watch as Ems drops the severed eye to the dirty grime-covered floor, the disgusting fucking thing still somehow connected to the man via the optical nerves - impossibly long squirming crimson tendrils. What the fuck? I mumble. I told you, the guy chuckles. I fucking told you. It’s hard to say how many there were. Countless maybe. Countless and then some, probably. Thin crimson worms, entangled in each other, organically interwoven to form a disgusting chain from the naked man’s empty eye socket to the severed eye on the floor. I could see them slithering in perfect repulsive unison, and suddenly the eye starts...moving. This is the best part, the guy says. The squirming chain slowly starts retracting, the blue of the eye turning a savory shade of grime-grey as it is dragged across the floor, up the naked man's legs, stomach, neck, face, until finally, after what seems like an eternity, it pops right back into the socket with a repulsive gloooph. My stomach wants me to vomit now, but it’s barren and dry and empty and sour, so instead my brain takes control, a tempting blank void all the way in the back of my mind presented as a possible solution. But they won’t let me go. Ems erupts in a maniacal laughter, like the sound of a chainsaw on rough concrete, and the guy soon follows. I feel the muscles in my back contracting all seizure-like; more than likely my body’s last desperate attempt at shutting me down. The naked man has stopped screaming now, the tortured wails replaced by a deep gargle, slime and blood mixed together in the back of his throat. Maybe his nightmare will end, I think, but then I realise it won’t. It hasn’t. It’s still going. The eye is still moving. Being dragged now inside his skull, I see the spongy texture of it bending and morphing hideously as it squeezes past bone structures that are by far too fucking narrow, and then it disappears completely, accompanied by a soundscape of gloophs and schlucks. The man topples over, still tied to the chair, and convulses in agony for minutes, until it all suddenly stops. I have never experienced such silence. That’s how I imagine space, you know. A great old big fucking vast empty nothingness of all the senses. And now, the guy says, standing over the corpse of the naked man. Now it is your turn. Ems hideous face morphs into that smile again. Big old lemon wrinkled smile. I remember her crooked yellow fingernails so vividly, horrid jagged things inching closer and closer to my eye, until I could feel them scraping on my exposed pupil. I guess my mind found a way out right then. Fucking took it long enough though, but I figure I must have passed out, maybe from the pain, maybe from the fear, maybe from the exhaustion. Most likely neither of those, though. When I woke up, I was alone, face down in my own sour-dry vomit on the ground. No naked corpse man, no dildo-helmet guy, no lemon-smiled Ems. I spent a good fifteen minutes checking my eyes, trembling fingers tracing them, you know, just to see if they were still there. And they were. They were fucking solid. They were fucking perfect. I guess I spent a few weeks or so recuperating from that shit, but I’ve never felt quite the same. Turns out there’s a reason for that. It’s weird you know, how I didn’t realise it sooner. I might be a fucked up piece of shit, but I’m no dummy. Gotta hand it to them though, it was a clever way to do it. Offering you a drink. I guess that’s how they got it in the naked man too. I suppose that’s why they told me I fucked up. Took too much, as the saying goes. Chugged the whole infestation. I cut myself shaving this morning. Just a tiny nick, you know. But where you’d expect blood, there was none. Instead I was greeted with the unseemly sight of a thin crimson worm, dangling restlessly by my nose. Now if that’s not some FUCKED UP SHIT, I don’t know what is. TCC
(Probably) FINAL UPDATE 1/3I have hit my wall, and so have others. This event IS. NOT. BEATABLE. Details in Updates. I will still answer questions throughout the event if anyone still needs help! Table of Contents (To easily find what you want)
Updates
Introduction
Important Points and major differences
What Hazard level to go for? (With in-depth details)
If you have set your sights on getting the LVN, look no more! Cause... it won't happen. Literally. Here is a vid of a guy downing 400,000 SC on BP packs to star up the LVN for Burning Pursuit VII. Notice there aren't individual BP even for sale. Honestly, it is painful to watch.
I have updated the Spreadsheet all the way through Burning Pursuit VI. I have yet to see anyone get any further. Use the spreadsheet to get the best ratio of SC you can, and upgrade the cars you like, because the LVN is out of range. Sorry guys :/
Updated the last parts in Burning Pursuit.
I will still answer any questions I can! Feel free to comment if you have any questions about anything! :)
(12/29)
Updated some of the spreadsheet, thanks to u/brorius.
Gotta be honest, I have worked so much on the pinned missions on Burning Pursuit, frequently getting zero. I don't have much left I can get, so I personally will be at a wall soon.
(12/26)
Added SC given in each of the pinned missions, to help you decide if you want to keep going (thanks to u/Thr0w_away_20!)
About increased cost to Epics: I can't figure out a pattern to the cost of epics. Epicsdocost more each time, but as for the rate, I am a bit lost... For example the first Apex epic costs 69,444 SC, andu/Didelididelidooconfirmed that the next one is about 79,000 SC, a 13% increase. . Then u/Eddles999 mentioned that the 4th is 90,276 SC and the 5th is 97,220, a 7.7% increase. So, as a general rule, think roughly 10% give or take. Think of that as you want to think what you want to upgrade. (Update 12/27)u/HuzzahA9 confirmed that the cost each time for the Apex increased 6944 SC each time. Thanks to you guys!
I have been trying to reply to all comments asking for help, and there have been quite a few, so if you didn't get an answer, comment again cause I might have missed it!
(12/24)
CONFIRMED! A ridiculous 216,000 SC is needed to upgrade the Bugatti LVN in order to finish Twilight Getaway. This requires 12,000 SC each for all four parts, a total of 48,000 SC. This also needs three import parts EACH, which are 18,000 SC each, equaling 216,000. A TOTAL OF 26400 SC, just to move on to the next stage. That is a HUGE jump, so keep this in mind. In all honesty, if I wasn't making this guide, I would stop here, and buy the epics for the APEX, and get that sucker golden.
IMPORTANT STRATEGY I HIGHLY recommend using the spreadsheet to do the races with better ratios, even intentionally losing the races with bad ratios. Especially if you don't have previous cars fully starred. SC requirements are a b****.
Big point about LVN requirements, decision making. The end of Twilight Getaway requires 3 import parts in addition to meet the required rank. In this screenshot you can see the requirements. See updates for more details.
Removed strong suggestion to have fully starred cars
Added Twilight Getaway (ongoing)complete
Added Required Rank for each part of each stage, starting from Twilight Getaway (sorry, I don't remember before that point)
Added a shortcut to the spreadsheet in Table of Contents
Added more races/ratios to the spreadsheet. Will do every stage.
GOT TO STRESS: The upgrades are EXPENSIVE! Keep doing the daily credit event in daily events for credits! This will be my biggest barrier moving forward in completing the guide.
Helpful hint for "Hunted" races: In parts where you have to go through barriers, using touchdrive made is significantly easier, though you have to swipe quickly sometimes.
2. Introduction
Once again, I am making this guide from my own experience. I will do my best to post as much as I can, but I can't promise everything. I will update as much as possible. I will put a strike through anything that I originally say but turns out to be different. I will post an update and when in bold. That said, I will do my best. If you are looking for the Rimac DS event on Switch, I made a guide for it last year, and it should be the same. Here is the linkIMPORTANT POINT: According to other players on Switch, the event isNOTthe same as my previous guide. It appears to be more P2W. So, use it more as a guideline rather than completely accurate. Sorry :/
3. First off, key differences and other key points (Important)(Updated 12/22)!
Unlike DS2, there is only one option at a time until Lightspeed Chase II. From there, you should always go for the higher level.
The Legend Pass is NOT needed! (at least it doesn't seem like it will be needed)
(Update 12/22)FOUR STAR CARS ARE REQUIREDunlike last year. Keep this in mind. Not true!
(Update 12/22) In order to get the best ratio of Syndicate Coins (SC) to Syndicate Points (SP), you should ALWAYS do the level three runs. I am not even going to mention level one and two, because the reward is not worth it. We have found that in the long run, it is better not to fully upgrade the car, just 2* below the max level. For this reason, I will be mentioning at some points.
It looks like there are cars that have been used before (Arrinera Hussarya 33, Apex Ap-0, and Porche 911GT3 RS), so there may not be a need to strategize as much. Update: still strategy is needed, but it will be easier if you already have these unlocked/starred.
THE PRICE OF INDIVIDUAL BP GOES UP AFTER EACH PURCHASE! For example, the first buyable BP for the BMW I8 Roadster is 1000 SC, the next being 1100, then 1200, 1300, 1400, etc.
The reward BP are only once, so you don't have to worry about planning rewarded BP.
The recharge time for Hazard Level is 15min for 1 slot
DON'T FORGET ABOUT DAILY CREDIT (YELLOW COIN) EVENTS (The ones that are in daily events)! This special event will need a lot of cars to be upgraded, which takes a LOT of credits. Make sure you do these every day to keep up with the upgrades.
There doesn't seem to be a limit in number of ads you can watch to refill the Hazard Level bar. I did over 50 the first night to write this walkthrough. Update: This is confirmed on Android for me, but Windows does seem to have a limit. (Thanks to u/RON8579!)
4. Should I always aim for Hazard Level 3? Or is level 2/1 okay?
Easy tl;dr: For cars you don't already have, keeping it two stars BELOW MAX is the most effecient!ALWAYS do the level 3 races if you already have it pretty high. (At least for cars so far). THIS IS ASSUMING THESE CARS WON'T NEED TO BE FULLY STARRED LATER ON. Slightly more detailed tl;dr: Depends on your end goal/what you have. If you already have a lot of BP for many cars, do the level 3 races only. And if you get lucky on the rolls. If you don't think you can fully staupgrade your car, you can do the lower ones, but will get significantly less SC. If you already have the car fully starred, or close to fully starred, definitely do the level 3 ones. Otherwise, star it to two stars below max. Now the math. Basically, the ratio for level 3 is roughly 2:1. For level 2, about 5-6:1. For level 1, about 6-7:1. So if you double the number of races at level 2 rather than level 3, reaching the same amount of SP, you will still have less SC. Here is a spreadsheet of all the details One extra thing, u/LordMadPunt made a decent point: "You can eke out a few extra SPs with this rule (also from the previous DS): Always use the highest hazard level that does not complete the mission. If completing the mission is unavoidable, use the highest hazard level for that." This is a good point to get just a little extra from the missions. However, if the SP will be the same (as seen in the last line of my spreadsheet), level 3 is still best.
But what if you don't want to/can't upgrade your car all the way?
I did the math on that for in both Lightspeed Chase and Among Skyscrapers. Whatever you do, you will need BMW I8 Roadster at at least 2*, fully upgraded. To get to 4*, you will need 75 BP. The drop rate for the packs is 20%. Using just this, lets say it would take about 32 rolls, or 160,000 SC, then buy all 10 of the individual BP (much cheaper), for 14,500 SC. Total, 174,500. But that is a pretty crappy situation, because it doesn't take into account the guaranteed drops. I found that I got on average about 2.7 per roll. 75 BP - 10 individual BP = 65 BP / 2.7 = about 24 rolls. 24x5000 = 120,000 + 14,500 for the individual BP, 134,500 SC. Still a lot. But again, it depends on your luck. What do you get by fully starring? For 3*, 10000 SC in pinned missions, and for 4* 20000 SC. Then take into mind the losses in not doing the hazard level 3 and then 2. I didn't calculate this when I originally did it, but from my own guesses from my other calculations. Let's say even liberally, (can someone confirm?) another 20000 SC lost. In total, this is 50,000 SC you can get from having a fully starred. This is no where close to the amount spent. Even from my more realistic, better chance roll, that is still 134,500 - 50,000 = 84,500 extra you will have to pay. In short, you will get to keep more SC by only starring up BMW I8 Roadster to 2\. Even if my math is off a bit, still a much better deal! I 4\ it all the way, and I personally really like it, but it seems like it is not needed. What about the Arrinera Hussarya 33? Whatever you do, you will need Arrinera Hussarya 33 at at least 3*, fully upgraded. To get to 5*, you will need 63 BP. Using the above rate, you will need to roll 20 times for 53 BP, (150,000 SC) plus all 10 individual BP (22,000ish?), which is 172,000. What do you miss? 50,000 in pinned missions, and to my calculations, about another 50,000 in Hazard 3 missions. 172,000 - 100,000 = 72,000extra needed to fully star. Key point! This is assuming you have no BP of the Arrinera Hussarya 33 at the beginning of the event. Fewer BP are needed obviously, so it costs less to fully star. I had the Arrinera Hussarya 33 already fully starred, so it makes sense to fully star and do the level 3 races if you have it already or are close. Conclusion? If you don't start with the car fully starred or close to it, don't spend the SC to do it unless you get lucky with a higher drop rate or luck with jackpots. Unless of course you like that car and want to fully star it :P Even if my estimations for SC earned from level 3 races is way off, it still isn't worth itif you start from zero on that car*.*
5. Should I buy SC with tokens in the shop?
Easy answer, yes, at least the first 2 or 3. I personally bought the first two (totaling 50,000SC) at the beginning, as that was what I needed last year. Once I needed to star up the I8 Roadster, I didn't quite have enough SC to star it up without buying any. You might get lucky, but it is Gameloft. Then, when I got to Lightspeed Chase III, I needed more, so the first purchase was definitely needed. When I started Lightspeed IV, I had no choice but to buy the third pack (50,000)
6. About "PINNED MISSIONS" for extra SC
These are very easy to pass. They are all Money Run, and the only to know is if you get fewer coins, you will need to run them more. But because they are easy to beat, this is the only place I will mention them.
The police are actually good to have here! Each knockdown is +125. And if you get another within a couple seconds, it is +325.
The goal is NOT to win. Drift, slow down, get chances to knock down the other races.
Jumping through the air and Shockwaving stops your SC from decreasing.
Update: It is actually easier to get more SC when your car matches the recommended (required) rank. When your car is much faster than the others, they fall behind easily, and therefor can't knock them down to get more SC. This doesn't affect the total you will get, but saves grinding/sanity time.
Update 12/26 added Pinned Missions amounts to each race.
7. Tricks for getting more Syndicate coins
There are a few little tricks to get the most Syndicate coins as possible. u/dragom7 made a great page with details you can find here. I have tested it myself, and it works! Especially the intentional losing of a match (thanks also u/neverchurningbutter!). Go for the lowest ratio in this spreadsheet, and thanks to u/dragom7's suggestion, I highlighted the races with the best and worse ratios (starting from Twilight Getaway). Just be careful, the way I wrote ratios and the way he did are different! Also, as mentioned in other areas, if Syndicate Coins is a priority, be sure to NOT upgrade your cars all the way. (Update 12/24) Also also, some level 2 hazard races have a ratio worse than some level 1s, so check out this spreadsheet to find out what has the best ratios are. (Update 12/24) If you are REALLY pushing to get the most SC (and you have the time to watch extra ads), intentionally lose frequently if the ratio isn't good. In theory, you could get a lot more if you only played the ones with good ratios. It would just take a long time....
8. Desert Disaster
This one is very straight forward. It does not take any Hazard Level during the whole thing, most (all?) are just "Finish the race" goals. You get to used a maxed Rimac for free, and all the races are on the new Nevada track. It is pretty easy to get first if you are used to the track from A8 back in the day. New players may have a little trouble because THIS CAR IS FAAAASST. So heads up. But all in all, all four of these are pretty easy (including a special little surprise for the story at the end...) *30 BP for the I8 Roadster is given as a reward at the end, unlocking it.* You can get 10,000 SC from pinned missions.
9. Lightspeed Chase
The main races are done in San Francisco. For the BMW I8 Roadster: 2* 23BP 3* 33BP 4* 42BP (Yes, 4* is needed this time aroundin order to get the Hazard Level 3 races as well as the pinned missions) Total Credit cost was more than 1,500,000. A lot. Do the Daily credit events. I will try to record exactly how much for other cars. One pack is 500 SC, (10-pack 5000 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 1000 SC, then 1100 SC, 1200 BP, etc., up to 10 BP. Epic Card for BMW I8 Roadster: 27,778 SC (one also available from Milestones from MP 12/18-12/24) (Update, event over). Each additional epic costs 10% more (2778(?) more) each time you buy one. In general, the courses aren't too bad. Unlike the previous event, you can't restart the game to change the options. Once you get to Lightspeed Chase II, two levels appear. At Lightspeed Chase III, three levels appear. DO NOT DO THE LOWER LEVEL ONES. ONLY THE LEVEL 3 ONESif you are trying to go all the way, as these give the best SC ratio. See #2 above for why this is no longer true. As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the BMW I8 Roadster, do so before unlocking Among Skyscrapers, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available. This means not finishing Lightspeed Chase V. In Lightspeed Chase V, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 1 (Yes, just stage one). HOWEVER this requires 4,600 SC for each of all four parts, a total of 17,400 SC. Keep this in mind while you play Lightspeed Chase. The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:49 to beat. Note that this is the first race with a time goal. You won't be able to beat the other racer, as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point. The time itself, without any big mistakes, is not a big challange. *30 BP for the Arrinera Hussarya 33 is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 35 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Lightspeed V is completed. At the end of Lightspeed Chase, I had about 55,000 SC (including the 150,000 SC bought with tokens) to get going on Among Skyscrapers. Pinned Missions SC given: Lightspeed Chase I: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase II: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase III: 10,000.Lightspeed Chase IV: 20,000
10. Among Skyscrapers
The main races are done in New York. For the Arrinera Hussarya 33 (the wiki page): 1* 35BP (Yes, you will need 5 more BP than what is given as a reward) 2* 15BP 3* 21BP 4* 28BP 5* 35BP (Fully upgraded, but epic parts not needed) One pack is 750 SC, (10-pack 7500 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 1500 SC. I don't know how much is goes up nor how many are available, as I already had this fully starred. If it is the same as the BMW, it will go up 10% after each one bought. *Someone hit me up and I will add it! Epic Card for Arrinera Hussaryar 33: 41,667 SC. Each additional epic costs 10% more (4167 more) each time you buy one. In general, the courses aren't too bad. Unlike the previous event, you can't restart the game to change the options. Once you get to Among Skyscrapers II, two levels appear. At Among Skyscrapers III, three levels appear. DO NOT DO THE LOWER LEVEL ONES if you have it at a high level already. ONLY THE LEVEL 3 ONESif you are trying to go all the way, as these give the best SC ratio. See 2.Should I always aim for hazard level 3? Or are level 1/2 okay? above for details as to why. As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the Arrinera Hussaryar 33, do so before finishing Among Skyscrapers VI, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available. In Among Skyscrapers VI, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 2 . This requires 7,500 SC each for all four parts, a total of 30,000 SC. The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:47 to beat. You won't be able to beat the other racer (I freakin 360 spinned him and he crashed at82% of the course, and he still won!), as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point. *30 BP for the Apex AP-0 is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 45 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Among Skyscrapers VI is completed. On a bit of a strange note, I had the absolute worse luck on the pinned missions in Among Skyscrapers III. The starting amount was always low and it took me FOREVER to get it maxed. At the end of Among Skyscrapers, I had about 55,000 SC (including the 150,000 SC bought with tokens), to get going on Among Skyscrapers. But, I already had the Hussarya 33 fully starred. This seems pointless to point out since everyone will be at a different points/SC amounts depending on what cars they already have unlocked as well as what path they choose. Pinned Missions SC given: Among Skyscrapers I: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers II: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers III: 10,000.Among Skyscrapers IV: 20,000.Among Skyscrapers V: 30,000.
11. Twilight Getaway
The main races are done in Rome. For the Apex AP-0 (the wiki page): 1* 45BP 2* 17BP 3* 23BP 4* 32BP 5* 45BP Twilight Getaway I: Hazard 3 2626 (1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC Twilight Getaway II: Hazard 3 2926 (2*) Hazard 2 2626(1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC Twilight Getaway III: Hazard 3 3189 (3*) Hazard 2 2926 (2*) Hazard 1 2626(1*) Pinned Missions: 15,000 SC Twilight Getaway IV: Hazard 3 3547 (4*) Hazard 2 3189 (3*) Hazard 1 2926(2*) Pinned Missions: 30,000 SC Twilight Getaway V: Hazard 3 3810 (5*) Hazard 2 3547 (4*) Hazard 1 3189(3*) Pinned Missions: 45,000 SC Twilight Getaway VI: Hazard 3 3980 (1*) LVN (INCLUDING IMPORT PARTS!) One pack is 1250 SC, (10-pack 12500 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 2500 SC. I don't know how much is goes up nor how many are available, as I already had this fully starred. If it is the same as the BMW, it will go up 10% after each one bought. *Someone hit me up and I will add it! Epic Card for Apex Ap-0 : 69,444 SC Each additional epic costs 10% more (6944 more) each time you buy one. The difficulty has stepped up in this set, at least for me it felt that way. Be sure to play only Hazard level 3 missions through Twilight Getaway III if you can, as 3* Apex is REQUIRED to move on. As stated above, if your goal is to fully upgrade the Apex AP-0, do so before finishing Twilight Getaway VI, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available. In Twilight Getaway VI, you will use the Bugatti La Voiture Noire, which will require upgrades to stage 3 . This requires 12,000 SC each for all four parts, a total of 48,000 SC. Thisneeds three import parts EACH, which are 18,000 SC each, for a total of 216,000!! (CONFIRMED 12/24) The last stage also is a 1v1 race with a time of 1:46 to beat. You (probably) won't be able to beat the other racer, as the Green Lizard is supposed to have a superior ride at this point. *30 BP for the Porsche 911 GT RS is given as a reward at the end.* It takes 55 BP (according to the wiki page) to unlock. You can get the remainder from the shop when Twilight Getaway VI is completed.
12. Burning Pursuit
The main races are done in Cairo. *NOTE: This is the first section of the event that needs a 4* car to advance. Also, thanks a bunch to broius for info of parts beyond what I could get! Proof For the Porsche 911 GT3 RS (the wiki page): 1* 55BP 2* 18BP 3* 24BP 4* 32BP 5* 47BP 6* 47BP Burning Pursuit I: Hazard 3 2109 (1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC Burning Pursuit II: Hazard 3 2458 (2*) Hazard 2 2109(1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC Burning Pursuit III: Hazard 3 2806 (3*) Hazard 2 2458 (2*) Hazard 1 2109 (1*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC Burning Pursuit IV: Hazard 3 3285 (4*) Hazard 2 2806 (3*) Hazard 1 2458 (2*) Pinned Missions: 20,000 SC Burning Pursuit V: Hazard 3 3677 (5*) Hazard 2 3285 (4*) Hazard 1 2806 (3*) Pinned Missions: 60,000 SC Burning Pursuit VI: Hazard 3 3893 (6*) Hazard 2 3677 (5*) Hazard 1 3285 (4*) Pinned Missions: 100,000 SC Burning Pursuit VII: Hazard 3 UNKNOWN.4007 (2*) YUP YOU READ THAT RIGHT! YOU GOTTA STAR UP THIS THING!45,000 SCfor 10-pack, so probably around 900,000+ SC if you are lucky! Not to mention the upgrades themselves. I have yet to see a single person actually do it. Here is a vidof a dude with 400,000 SC spending on the packs. Spoiler, he didn't get it. One pack is 2000 SC, (10-pack 20000 SC). Individual BP are available starting at 4000 SC. Epic Card for Porsche 911 GT3 RS : 111,111 SC Each additional epic costs 10% more (11,111 more) each time you buy one. As stated above,if your goal is to fully upgrade the Porsche 911 GT3 RS, do so before finishing Burning Pursuit VII, as the purchasable BP and the Epic Parts will no longer be available(Update 1/3)If you are reading this, you won't be able to progress further, so take your time getting the epics if that is your goal. (to be continued [edited] as I clear more/more becomes available if someone can actually get farther) I really hope I can get all the way through the DS even :/Won't happen, sadly...
Confidence Intervals, P-values, and Statistical Significance
TL;DR: Vegan Gains is incorrect. All cause mortality risks relative to regular meat eaters for low meat eaters, fish eaters, and vegetarians/vegans aren't different. The authors didn't contradict themselves or get the data wrong (shocking), it's just that Destiny and Vegan Gains didn't clearly state and understand the null hypothesis in question. Context: Vegan Gains was debating Destiny and cited Mortality in vegetarians and comparable nonvegetarians in the United Kingdom to demonstrate that simply reducing meat intake isn't enough - to significantly reduce all cause mortality, you have to be vegan. Destiny noted that the following sentence that seemed to contradict Vegan Gains:
When we excluded data for participants known to have changed diet group at least once during follow-up, leaving data for 4270 deaths before age 90, there was no significant difference in risk between diet groups for all causes of death combined, as follows: low meat eaters, HR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.02); fish eaters, HR: 0.91 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.02); and vegetarians and vegans, HR: 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) compared with regular meat eaters; P-heterogeneity = 0.13
Vegan Gains stated he doesn't care what the authors said in the paper - what matters are the numbers. And the numbers clearly show that the confidence intervals for the hazard ratio of the vegetarian/vegan group don't cross the null (i.e. don't contain 1, as it ranges from 0.84 to 0.99); thus, there is a significant difference. So who is right here? Definitions: skip if you already know Hazard Ratio: basically rate of death in one group as compared to another group. In this study, reported hazard ratios are rate of death of one of the 3 diet groups as compared to regular meat eaters. For example, if I have a hazard ratio of 5 for fish eaters, that means they die at a rate 5 times that of regular meat eaters (which would be bad for fish eaters). A hazard ratio of 1 or close to 1 would mean similar rates (i.e. not much of a difference in death rates). An HR beneath 1 would be good for that diet (they die less). P-value: the probability that (assuming the null hypothesis is correct) you'd see results at least as extreme as the ones you observed if you performed the same analysis again. For example, if I do an analysis to see what the correlation is between basketball players and height, we could say my null hypothesis is r=0 (there's no correlation). Let's say I find an 85% correlation, and the p-value is 0.0000001%. That means that, if the null hypothesis is true (there's no correlation), there'd be a 0.0000001% chance of observing results at least as extreme as an 85% correlation. In other words, that's super unlikely so we can reject the null (we reject the idea that there's no correlation). In this example, we're talking about p-values for correlation. We can also make p-values for hazard ratios. 95% Confidence Interval: basic idea is to think of it as a range of values that hopefully captures our parameter that we care about. I.E. let's say I am about to calculate a 95% confidence interval for the average weight of women. That interval will have a 95% chance of including the true average weight of women (and if we calculate it, it might come out to be like 160-180 pounds for example). In this example, we're talking about confidence intervals for average weight. We can make confidence intervals for hazard ratios as well. Can confidence intervals tell you significance by "crossing the null"? Yes: There's another interpretation of confidence intervals that allows you to determine statistical significance, since the p-value and the confidence interval are actually mathematically linked to one another (don't need to know how, just know they are). If the confidence interval includes your null hypothesis value, you cannot reject the null hypothesis. If it doesn't include your null hypothesis value, you can reject the null hypothesis. Further, your p-value should agree with the result from the confidence interval (i.e. a confidence interval that crosses the null means we should have a non-significant p-value). Likewise, if your p-value is significant, you will necessarily see that your confidence interval doesn't include the null. I don't know why the people Destiny brought on were saying you can't use confidence intervals to assess significance. Regardless, in this case, Vegan Gains is claiming that the null hypothesis is a hazard ratio of 1 (i.e. vegetarians/vegans have the same rate of death as regular meat eaters). If the confidence interval encompasses that (e.g. 0.8-1.2), we see no significant difference. Finally, that leads us to this ... Explaining the discrepancy: Is VG right? No. So isn't Vegan Gains right? After all, 0.82-0.99 doesn't include 1. Well, there's a problem. They actually calculated a p-value for us in the part I quoted. A p-value of 0.13. That p-value isn't significant at the 0.05 significance threshold (which is what we're using given 95% confidence intervals). How can this be? I just said that the confidence interval and p-value need to agree when it comes to determining significance. There's only one solution: the null hypothesis isn't that the HR = 1. The discrepancy is that the authors wanted to know how the hazard ratios relative to regular meat eaters of each of the diet groups compared to each other (low meat, fish eaters, and vegetarians/vegans). When you do that statistical test, you find none of them are significantly different (P=0.13). Basically, the hazard ratio for low meat eaters isn't significantly different from the hazard ratio of vegan/vegetarians. The null hypothesis in this case would be that the HR for low meat = HR for fish eaters = HR for vegetarians/vegans. Since we fail to reject, we have failed to detect a statistically significant difference of the death rates (relative to regular meat eating) across the three diets. Vegan Gains is looking at which of the 3 diets are significantly different from regular meat eaters by looking at their confidence intervals. The null hypothesis in this case would be 3 separate ones for each diet (e.g. HR for vegans/vegetarians = 1; HR for fish eaters = 1; HR for low meat eaters = 1). I think the problem here is that a proper analysis would require a correction for multiple tests, since you're doing 3 separate tests, and VG hasn't done this, so to claim that this data shows that only being vegan/vegetarian is sufficient to reduce all-cause mortality isn't the case. What if we separate vegetarians and vegans? Maybe those cheese-breathers are dragging us down. The authors did this. Results for vegans were: HR: 1.14 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.35). Not significantly different from any of the other diet groups. Confidence interval crosses 1. The analysis goes in detail about various causes of death and how vegans compare to regular meat eaters. I didn't read the whole study. Just thought it was worth pointing out. If I got anything wrong, please correct me, and I'll update the post accordingly.
PSA (For DS3): avoid high SP hazard 3 missions at all costs
TLDR: use this excel spreadsheet to calculate your strategy for a stage. TLDR2: do hazard level 3, but only go for 2000-3000 SP hazard 3 missions, except for the last one. See below for how it is applied to lightspeed IV. As u/conradbilly mentioned in his guide , you should almost always do hazard 3 missions for their higher coin payout. This is because the best way to avoid running into a paywall is to maximize your syndicate coin earnings. That advice is good. But nowhere close to optimal. This is because even for the same stage and the same chapter, not all hazard 3 missions are created equal for Drive Syndicate 3. For example, Lightspeed Chase IV, has the following different possible payout configurations for hazard level 3 missions:
1200 coins for 2250 SP (coin ratio of 0.533)
1600 coins for 3375 SP (coin ratio of 0.474)
2000 coins for 5250 SP (coin ratio of 0.381)
Now consider that Lightspeed IV is completed at 25k SP, and the ratio becomes significant.
25000*0.533= 13333 syndicate coins
25000*0.381 = 9524 syndicate coins
In other words, there is a 4k coin difference in the syndicate coins you earn from the stage, amounting to 2-3 car bps! You might not think it is a lot, but it could mean the difference between progressing and not progressing in the drive syndicate. In order to refresh the mission list, you have two methods: - (Recommended after Lightspeed): logout on your asphalt app, switch racer accounts, and then switch back. (For example, I switched between my iOS game center account and my facebook account) - (more convenient, recommended for Lightspeed): pick a hazard level 1 mission, and then fail it (this is as easy as starting the mission, then tapping “quit race”) Now, we can do even better than 13333 for Lightspeed IV when it comes to syndicate coins. This is because of the following fact: missions that complete the stage keep their syndicate coin payouts. In other words, if you are at 24999/25000 from completing the stage, the hazard 3 mission that normally carries the 5250 SP and 2000 coin payout will instead carry 1SP but keep its 2000 coin payout. This means the optimal strategy for Lightspeed IV is as follows: - 11 of the 2250 SP missions (gets you to 24750) - followed by 1 of the 5250 SP hazard 3 mission, which is now marked down to 250 SP. This strategy gives you 15200 syndicate coins for Lightspeed IV, significantly more than the ~11000 you would get on average without this strategy. In other words, while you can’t control your luck with the blueprint packs, you can control how many of them you can afford to open. To guarantee progression in Drive syndicate, this strategy should definitely be used and abused.
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Clinical Hematology Atlas, 5th Edition: Bernadette F. Rodak & Jacqueline H. Carr
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Introduction to Computer and Network Security: Navigating Shades of Gray, 1st Edition: Richard R. Brooks
Brunner & Suddarth's Textbook of Medical-Surgical Nursing, 14th Edition: Janice L. Hinkle & Kerry H. Cheever
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Handbook of Applied Therapeutics, 9th Edition: Burgunda Sweet
Business Analytics, 3rd Edition: James Evans
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Business and Professional Communication, 1st Edition: Kory Floyd
Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Planning for IT Professionals, 1st Edition: Susan Snedaker
Business Law, 6th Edition: Robert W. Emerson
Business: A Changing World, 10th Edition: O. C. Ferrell & Geoffrey Hirt & Linda Ferrell
Agricultural Internet of Things and Decision Support for Precision Smart Farming, 1st Edition: Annamaria Castrignano & Gabriele Buttafuoco & Raj Khosla
Calculus: AP Edition, 11th Edition: Howard Anton & Irl C. Bivens
Calculus: Early Transcendentals, 9th Edition: James Stewart & Daniel K. Clegg & Saleem Watson
California Wills and Trusts: Cases, Statutes, Problems, and Materials: Peter T. Wendel & Robert G. Popovich
Cardiovascular Physiology Concepts, 2nd Edition: Richard E. Klabunde
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Sexuality Now: Embracing Diversity, 6th Edition: Janell L. Carroll
Private Security Today, 1st Edition: Frank Schmalleger & Larry Siegel & Carter Smith
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Cases in Public Relations Management: The Rise of Social Media and Activism, 3rd Edition: Patricia Swann
Peace Education Evaluation: Learning from Experience and Exploring Prospects: Celina Del Felice & Aaron Karako & Andria Wisler
Changes in the Land: Indians, Colonists, and the Ecology of New England: William Cronon
The Theory and Craft of Digital Preservation: Trevor Owens
Optical Modulation: Advanced Techniques and Applications in Transmission Systems and Networks, 1st Edition: Le Nguyen Binh
Laser Beam Shaping Applications, 2nd Edition: Fred M. Dickey & Todd E. Lizotte
Characterization Techniques and Tabulations for Organic Nonlinear Optical Materials, 1st Edition: Mark G. Kuzyk & Carl Dirk
Human Resources and Change Management for Safety Professionals, 1st Edition: Thomas D. Schneid & Shelby L. Schneid
Security Management: A Critical Thinking Approach, 1st Edition: Michael Land & Truett Ricks & Bobby Ricks
Nutritional and Health Aspects of Food in Western Europe: Susanne Braun & Christina Zübert & Dimitrios Argyropoulos
Medical Cultures of the Early Modern Spanish Empire, 1st Edition: John Slater & Maríaluz López-Terrada & José Pardo-Tomás
Introduction To Environmental Impact Assessment, 4th Edition: John Glasson & Riki Therivel
Twenty-First Century Marianne Moore: Essays from a Critical Renaissance, 1st Edition: Elizabeth Gregory & Stacy Carson Hubbard
Metal Oxide Glass Nanocomposites: Sanjib Bhattacharya
Lagrangian Mechanics: An Advanced Analytical Approach: Anh Le Van & Rabah Bouzidi
Exterior Algebras: Elementary Tribute to Grassmann's Ideas: Vincent Pavan
Elements of Probability and Statistics: An Introduction to Probability with de Finetti's Approach and to Bayesian Statistics, 1st Edition: Francesca Biagini & Massimo Campanino
Essentials of Health Economics, 2nd Edition: Diane M. Dewar
Research Methods in International Business: Lorraine Eden & Bo Bernhard Nielsen
Introduction to Porous Materials: Pascal Van Der Voort & Karen Leus & Els De Canck
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Anthropology-Based Computing: Putting the Human in Human-Computer Interaction: John N.A. Brown
Handbook of Basal Ganglia Structure and Function, 2nd Edition: Heinz Steiner & Kuei Y. Tseng
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CFA Program Curriculum 2020, Level 1, Volume 1, Ethics and Professional Standards & Quantitative Methods: CFA Institute
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Discovering the American Past: A Look at the Evidence, Volume II: Since 1865, 8th Edition: William Bruce Wheeler & Lorri Glover
Don't Make Me Think, Revisited: A Common Sense Approach to Web Usability: Steve Krug
Dosage Calculations: A Ratio-Proportion Approach, 4th Edition: Gloria D. Pickar & Amy Pickar-Abernethy
Your College Experience, 13th Edition: John Gardner & Bessy Barefoot
The Tarot Companion: Liz Dean
The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life: Mark Manson
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The Real World, 7th Edition: Kerry Ferris & Jill Stein
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The Modern Guide to Witchcraft: Your Complete Guide to Witches, Covens, and Spells: Skye Alexander
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The Intentional Relationship Occupational Therapy and Use of Self, 2nd Edition: Renee R Taylor
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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report: Final Report Of The National Commission On The Causes Of The Financial And Economic Crisis In The United States: U.S. Government Printing Office
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The Engaged Sociologist: Connecting the Classroom to the Community, 6th Edition: Jonathan M. White & Michelle K. White
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The DIRTY, LAZY, KETO Cookbook: Bend the Rules to Lose the Weight!: Stephanie Laska & William Laska
The Design of Everyday Things: Revised and Expanded Edition: Don Norman
The Copywriter's Toolkit: The Complete Guide to Strategic Advertising Copy, 1st Edition: Margo Berman
The Context of Business: Understanding the Canadian Business Environment: Natalie Guriel & Len Karakowsky
The Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers, 3rd Edition: Johnny Saldana
The Brothers: John Foster Dulles, Allen Dulles, and Their Secret World War: Stephen Kinzer
The Boy Who Was Raised as a Dog: And Other Stories from a Child Psychiatrist's Notebook: What Traumatized Children Can Teach Us About Loss, Love, and Healing: Bruce D Perry & Maia Szalavitz
The Bible: A Historical and Literary Introduction, 2nd Edition: Bart D. Ehrman
The Art of Democracy: A Concise History of Popular Culture in the United States, 2nd Edition: Jim Cullen
The Art and Craft of Fiction: A Writer's Guide, 2nd Edition: Michael Kardos
Technical Communication: Process and Product, 9th Edition: Sharon Gerson & Steven Gerson
Szycher's Practical Handbook of Entrepreneurship and Innovation: Michael Szycher
Essentials of Maternity, Newborn, and Women's Health Nursing, 4th Edition: Susan Ricci
Mechanical Ventilation in Emergency Medicine, 1st Edition: Susan R. Wilcox & Ani Aydin & Evie G. Marcolini
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Current Developments in Biotechnology and Bioengineering: Resource Recovery from Wastes: Sunita Varjani & Ashok Pandey & Edgard Gnansounou
Surgical Technology for the Surgical Technologist: A Positive Care Approach, 5th Edition: Association of Surgical Technologists
Study Guide for Gould's Pathophysiology for the Health Professions, 6th Edition: Karin C. VanMeter & Robert J. Hubert
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Llewellyn's 2021 Witches' Companion: A Guide to Contemporary Living: Lupa & Susan Pesznecker & Deborah Lipp & Kerri Connor
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Elementary Statistics Using Excel, 5th Edition: Mario F. Triola
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Hey folks, So following up on my previous post, I've created an excel spreadsheet that can help you determine the optimal strategy to maximize syndicate coins for a given stage. As long as you have the SC/SP values for the races for a stage, you can plug it in and run the solver, and the spreadsheet will spit out the optimal solution. You can access the calculator here. It includes precomputed the strategies for the missions up to Twilight Getaway 2. To recap: - Why optimize payouts? It's obvious: in order to progress in DS, you need cars and Bugatti upgrades. To get those, you need Syndicate Coins. And There's only one free2play way to get syndicate coins, and that is through syndicate missions. - 2. How much does following this strategy help? I can say that you would be making 2-4k more Syndicate Coins per stage, equivalent to at least one required blueprint. - 3. Wait, but I thought doing hazard level 3 is optimal It is not. For example, in particular some hazard level 3 missions are better than others in the payout ratio. - 4. How do I get the missions I want? If Greedloft gives you a bad mission, you can reroll by switching to another account and then switching back.
https://preview.redd.it/abq0dmfpitd61.jpg?width=509&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2752ee422bcf4366bedf0f3a68542730d2b45bd0 Over the past few years we've heard all sorts of dire warnings about the effects of sitting. "Your Desk Job Makes You Fat, Sick, and Dead" is just one of the alarming headlines that have accompanied the news. A report out Wednesday in the journal provides a somewhat predictable solution. It says the key to canceling out the dangers of sitting is to be active. What's more helpful is the study's formula that calculates just how much physical activity is needed to ward off the risks of sitting: it's a ratio of one to eight. You must be active for one hour to make up for every eight hours staying put, which for most people equates to about 60 or 75 minutes per day. The activity doesn't have to be rigorous--even brisk walking would suffice--and it can be completed in shorter increments. The study, lead by Professor Ulf Ekelund for the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences and the University of Cambridge, comes from an analysis of about 1 million people aged 45 and older in the United States, Western Europe, and Australia. The study says that being active can reduce or eliminate sitting's hazards, like death, diabetes, and some cancers. The study's prescribed 60-75 minutes of activity is more than what's recommended in most public health guidelines. Examining the joint effects of sitting and physical activity is important, the authors argue, because most people engage in both behaviors every day, "so the effects of both should be considered in public health guidelines. " And there's an urgency to adopting this new advice. An accompanying study calculates that physical inactivity cost health care systems worldwide a combined $ billion in 2013, $ billion of which was paid for by the public sector. Plus, deaths related to physical inactivity contribute to $ billion in productivity losses. Higher-income countries bear a larger proportion of the economic consequences while lower- and middle-income countries have a larger proportion of the disease burden.
I posted the following on my FB page and was told by TBM family and friends that I should take my negative comments about TSCC to another platform. All I did was quote TSCC Leaders...
Here was my post: "The importance of the Book of Mormon according to LDS Apostles and Prophets: “Take away the Book of Mormon, and the revelations, and where is our religion? We have none.” (Joseph Smith, Minute Book 1, p. 44) “There are three ways in which the Book of Mormon is the keystone of our religion. It is the keystone in our witness of Christ. It is the keystone of our doctrine. It is the keystone of [our] testimony... Just as the arch crumbles if the keystone is removed, so does all the Church stand or fall with the truthfulness of the Book of Mormon.” (Ezra Taft Benson, The Book of Mormon – Keystone of Our Religion, Ensign, Oct 1986) “If the origin of the Book of Mormon could be proved to be other than that set forth by Joseph Smith; if the book itself could be proved to be other than it claims to be…then the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and its message and doctrines…must fall; for if that book is other than it claims to be; if its origin is other than that ascribed to it by Joseph Smith, then Joseph Smith says that which is untrue; he is a false prophet of false prophets; and all he taught and all his claims to inspiration and divine authority, are not only vain but wicked; and all that he did as a religious teacher is not only useless, but mischievous beyond human comprehending.” (B.H. Roberts, President of the Quorum of Seventies and LDS Historian, New Witness for God, 2 (Salt Lake City: Deseret News, 1909), iii-vii. as quoted in The Secret Mormon Meetings of 1922 by Shannon Caldwell Montez, December 2019, p. 11-12) “...everything in the Church – everything – rises or falls on the truthfulness of the Book of Mormon and, by implication, the Prophet Joseph Smith’s account of how it came forth...It sounds like a 'sudden death' proposition to me. Either the Book of Mormon is what the Prophet Joseph said it is or this Church and its founder are false, fraudulent, a deception from the first instance onward.” (Apostle Jeffrey R. Holland, True or False, New Era, June 1995) “This book [Book of Mormon] must be either true or false. If true, it is one of the most important messages ever sent from God to man, affecting both the temporal and eternal interests of every people under heaven to the same extent and in the same degree that the message of Noah affected the inhabitants of the old world. If false, it is one of the most cunning, wicked, bold, deep-laid impositions ever palmed upon the world, calculated to deceive and ruin millions who will sincerely receive it as the word of God, and will suppose themselves securely built upon the rock of truth until they are plunged with their families into hopeless despair. The nature of the message in the Book of Mormon is such, that if true, no one can possibly be saved and reject it; if false, no one can possibly be saved and receive it. Therefore, every soul in all the world is equally interested in ascertaining its truth or falsity. In a matter of such infinite importance no person should rest satisfied with the conjectures or opinions of others; he should use every exertion himself to become acquainted with the nature of the message: he should carefully examine the evidences on which it is offered to the world: he should, with all patience and perseverance, seek to acquire a certain knowledge as to whether it be of God or not. Without such an investigation in the most careful, candid, and impartial manner, he cannot safely judge without greatly hazarding his future and eternal welfare. If, after a rigid examination, it [Book of Mormon] be found an imposition, it should be extensively published to the world as such; the evidences and arguments upon which the imposture was detected, should be clearly and logically stated, that those who have been sincerely yet unfortunately deceived, may perceive the nature of the deception, and be reclaimed, - and that those who continue to publish the delusion, may be exposed and silenced, not by physical force, neither by persecutions, bare assertions, nor ridicule, but by strong and powerful arguments — by evidences adduced from scripture and reason. Such, and such only, should be the weapons employed to detect and overthrow false doctrines — to reclaim mankind from their errors — to expose religious enthusiasm — and to put to silence base and wicked impostors.” (Apostle Orson Pratt, Divine Authenticity of the Book of Mormon, p.1)"
Common Metrics/Terms an Investor Uses to Analyze Commercial Real Estate
https://preview.redd.it/0zycju5jb0a61.jpg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e10c5a3d6f2f32e380e1bfd1a2160f79cf6763f It’s not a secret that numbers drive real estate investment decisions. But the real question is, which metrics are valid? Which metrics matter? Depending on your investment goals and property type, some metrics are more important than others. The following metrics/terms real estate investors commonly use when making portfolio decisions: 1. Capitalization Rate (Cap Rate) Cap rate is mostly used for apartment complexes and commercial buildings. Capitalization rate can also be used for houses and small multifamily properties, but the flip side is that operating expenses are unpredictable with houses since you can’t know how often or how bad your turnovers may be. Cap rate allows you to compare properties in the same asset class with different characteristics that make direct comparison impossible. The disadvantage of the Cap rate is that it’s only a snapshot. It says nothing about the expected growth in expenses, rents, property value, and whether using leverage will increase your return. 2. Cash Flow When evaluating rental properties, it’s vital to figure out your expected monthly cash flow. When determining total expenses, you should include:
Property taxes
Flood and hazard insurance
Water
Sewer
Garbage
Electricity
Property management
General maintenance and upkeep
Capital expenditures
Vacancy rate
3. Return on Investment (ROI) RoI is helpful for analyzing how well a deal did in the past. This measurement is always good to have because you can’t adjust your future investing unless you know how your previous investments performed. 4. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) The internal rate of return is used to measure a project’s profitability, accounting for initial investment costs, cash flow, and property sale proceeds. The higher the IRR, the more appealing the project. 5. Gross Operating Income (GOI) Gross operating income is used to figure out how much capital it takes to run a property. GOI figure removes the estimated losses in tenant vacancies or credits from the potential operating income. 6. Net Operating Income (NOI) Net operating income explains how much money the property will earn after all operating expenses are paid. Basically, this metric is the total income (rent, parking, and any other monthly fees) minus expenses (vacancy, credit losses, property taxes, insurance, management fees, utilities, etc.). 7. Cash-on-Cash Return Cash-on-cash return is used for ‘buy and hold’ investors, and it tells what your return will be in the first year of holding a specific property. It can also help in deciding whether to use leverage (and what kind of leverage), as it’s easy to calculate how cash-on-cash return will change if you reduce your invested cash by adding debt, which also increases the accompanying debt service. 8. Loan-to-Value Ratio (LTV) This metric is used by lenders and financial institutions to assess risk. The higher the LTV, the more risk is involved with the loan. A high LTV can add additional costs to the investment, either through interest rates or requirements to buy additional insurance.
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Theory and Treatment Planning in Counseling and Psychotherapy, 2nd Edition: Diane R. Gehart
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Aspen Treatise for Federal Jurisdiction, 7th Edition: Erwin Chemerinsky
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Conflicting Philosophies and International Trade Law: Worldviews and the WTO, 1st Edition, 2018 Edition: Michael Burkard
Consciousness in the Physical World: Perspectives on Russellian Monism, 1st Edition: Torin Alter & Yujin Nagasawa
Ethical Issues in Behavioral Neuroscience: Grace Lee & Judy Illes & Frauke Ohl
Pediatric Epidemiology: Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Volume 21: W. Kiess & C. G. Bornehag & C. Gennings
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Counseling the Culturally Diverse: Theory and Practice, 7th Edition: Derald Wing Sue & David Sue
Orientation to the Counseling Profession: Advocacy, Ethics, and Essential Professional Foundations, 3rd Edition: Bradley Erford
Chemistry, 4th Edition: Allan Blackman & Steven E. Bottle & Siegbert Schmid & Mauro Mocerino & Uta Wille
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Clinical Companion to Medical-Surgical Nursing: Assessment and Management of Clinical Problems, 11th Edition: Debra Hagler & Mariann M. Harding & Jeffrey Kwong
Comprehensive Care of the Transgender Patient: Cecile A Ferrando
Cytology: Diagnostic Principles and Clinical Correlates, 5th Edition: Edmund S. Cibas & Barbara S. Ducatman
Essentials of General, Organic, and Biochemistry, 3rd Edition: Denise Guinn
The Early Slavs: Eastern Europe from the Initial Settlement to the Kievan Rus, 1st Edition: Pavel Dolukhanov
Business Ethics: Case Studies and Selected Readings, 9th Edition: Marianne M. Jennings
Life: The Science of Biology, 12th Edition: David M. Hillis & H. Craig Heller & Sally D. Hacker & David W. Hall & Marta J. Laskowski & David E. Sadava
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Multinational Management: A Strategic Approach, 7th Edition: John B. Cullen & K. Praveen Parboteeah
Cultures of the West: A History, Volume 2: Since 1350, 3rd Edition: Clifford R. Backman
Social Problems, 7th Edition: John J. Macionis
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Games of Strategy, 5th Edition: Avinash K. Dixit & Susan Skeath & David McAdams
Organization Development and Change, 11th Edition: Thomas G. Cummings & Christopher G. Worley
Envision in Depth: Reading, Writing, and Researching Arguments, 4th Edition: Christine L. Alfano & Alyssa J. O'Brien
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Labor Economics: Principles in Practice, 2nd Edition: Kenneth McLaughlin
College Mathematics for Business, Economics, Life Sciences, and Social Sciences, 14th Edition: Raymond Barnett & Michael Ziegler & Karl Byleen & Christopher Stocker
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Hey guys, I'm Jake AKA jackofspadesman. I've been into competitive Pokémon since late 2007 and started playing VGC in late 2014. My career isn't the most decorated in that time, but I'm always on the look out to help new players learn VGC and share my passion for it. With that, I've been writing a guide of sorts to assist newer VGC players get into the game, avoid common mistakes, and improve as a whole. As someone who started as a Smogon Singles player, I hope my advice can be of some use to you to succeed at VGC! Primer What is VGC? Pokémon VGC stands for the Video Game Championships. It is the official competitive Play! Pokémon format for Pokémon battling in the video game series and is led by The Pokémon Company International (TPCi) in most countries. What are the main rules of VGC? VGC is a Doubles format with all Pokémon set to Level 50, whether they’re actually higher or lower level. You are allowed a team of six different Pokémon (differentiated by their Pokédex number) that all must carry unique items from one another (or no item if you so choose), also known as the Item Clause, that may not change at all during the course of the tournament. When starting a battle, you see your opponent’s team in team preview and must choose only four Pokémon to take into that game; this is commonly known as bring 6 take 4. A comprehensive set of rules can be found linked on this page: https://www.pokemon.com/us/play-pokemon/about/tournaments-rules-and-resources/ When does the legal Pokémon list change? VGC formats usually change at the beginning of each year with a new set of rules making different species of Pokémon legal for use. However, in recent years, we’ve been seeing formats change every few months with the release of different in-game Gigantamax events and the release of DLC. Where can I play VGC? When it comes to VGC, there are five major ways to play that stand out: official events, community-run tournaments, in-game Battle Stadium Doubles, against your friends online using the Battle Stadium Doubles rules on Y-Comm, and Pokémon Showdown. Differences from Singles At a glance As mentioned earlier, VGC is played as “bring 6 pick 4” Double Battles, where every Pokémon on the team of 6 holds a different item. Tiers? Unlike Smogon, VGC does not have any tiering system that permits or bans any Pokémon from the legal list from being used; throughout a format, the Pokémon on the legal list will always stay legal. Battles are quick Because each player has two Pokémon on the field at a time and only four Pokémon each, battles move a lot faster than Singles. Battles often last only 8-12 turns, compared to the multi-dozen or even triple digit turn long Single Battles. Spread moves Spread moves (moves that hit more than one target) are unique from Singles, not because those moves don’t exist but because there are no additional targets to hit! Some moves, like Earthquake and Surf, hit all other Pokémon on the field; other moves, like Rock Slide and Heat Wave, hit both opponents without threatening the user’s partner. In either case, when spread moves are used and multiple targets exist, they will only do 75% of the damage they’d do when only one target exists. Doubles Dedicated Moves If you’re a Singles player, you’ve probably come across moves that are less than ideal for Singles or sometimes have no function at all. Moves such as Helping Hand, Follow Me, Rage Powder, Ally Switch, Wide Guard, Quick Guard, and Heal Pulse are moves designed with Double Battles in mind. These moves are staples on supportive Pokémon to aid their partners with a multitude of effects. If you see a Pokémon in VGC that isn’t doing much on the offensive side, chances are it’s using one of these supportive options to gain the upper hand. Another great move with Doubles in mind is the move Fake Out. While not unheard of in Singles for some free damage, Fake Out takes on a whole new role in Double Battles. By flinching the target of the attack, it can allow the Pokémon’s partner a chance to use a set up move like Dragon Dance, a speed control move like Trick Room, or simply deal with a threatening Pokémon before it has a chance to move. Be warned though - some Pokémon have abilities that make them immune to flinching and Dynamax Pokémon cannot flinch at all! Choosing items wisely With the concept of item clause, you often have to get creative with your item choices which can ultimately affect what Pokémon can end up on your team. So what items are good? Like Singles, items like Life Orb, Focus Sash, Assault Vest, and Lum Berry are all great options due to the nature of the speed of Double Battles and needing to make the most of a Pokémon’s relatively short time on the field. However, some items frequently don’t make the cut for this very same reason, such as Leftovers and Black Sludge. Due to the lack of entry hazards, the Heavy-Duty Boots are also a wasted item slot. The Choice items are another great item to talk about during a time when Dynamax exists. The Choice accessories, while generally great on the right Pokémon, do not take effect when a Pokémon has Dynamaxed which essentially makes them itemless. So what items work in VGC that don’t make it much in Singles? To replace Leftovers, Pokémon will often carry health-restoring berries, such as Sitrus Berry or Iapapa Berry, which restore a larger amount of HP immediately without the restriction of their recovery being gradual over many turns. People also will use type resistance berries like Coba Berry to halve the damage from super-effective flying-type attacks or Shuca Berry to mitigate damage from super-effective ground-type attacks so Pokémon can survive even just one turn longer to perform their functions. Because of the Dynamax mechanic doubling a Pokémon’s HP, Weakness Policy has become a favored item in VGC allowing Pokémon to use this newfound bulk to survive a super-effective attack and fire back harder. Oftentimes, a Weakness Policy is able to be activated by a partner Pokémon on a team, like a Mimikyu with Shadow Sneak targeting its partner Dragapult. With the popularity of Pokémon such as Amoonguss and Venusaur, Safety Goggles are also a great pick to prevent Spore and Sleep Powder, as well as ignore Rage Powder's redirection. Entry Hazards Double Battles tend to have less switching for advantageous positioning due to their faster pacing, rendering entry hazards such as Stealth Rock and Spikes irrelevant. For this reason, you don’t see them used in VGC often and never at a high level of play. Stall A common strategy seen in Singles is known as stalling. Bulky Pokémon that can use Toxic and recovery moves while taking little damage from their opponents allows them to take a slow approach to beating their opponent. In VGC however, having two Pokémon that can attack, as well as the looming timers, usually shuts down these types of strategies. Baton Pass While Baton Pass has been banned in modern Smogon metagames, it’s perfectly legal in VGC like every other move. Although it’s seen some success, primarily in 2017 with the use of Eevee’s signature Z-Move Extreme Evoboost, it often just puts a target on your Pokémon to be dogpiled by the opposing Pokémon’s attacks. With Taunt, Haze, and Clear Smog present more than ever, it’s hard to justify using at all. Sleep In Smogon metagames, the use of moves that put Pokémon to sleep are held back by what's known as the Sleep Clause. This is an enforced rule (and one built into Pokémon Showdown) that prevents a player from putting more than one of the opponent's Pokémon to sleep. In VGC, there is no rule against how many Pokémon you can put to sleep, so Pokémon such as Amoonguss and Venusaur are extremely common to prevent one's opponent from taking any turns at all. Be sure to always have good countermeasures to avoid getting put to sleep, whether it be Taunt, Electric or Misty Terrain setters, Lum Berry, or Safety Goggles to prevent Sleep PowdeSpore. Key Strategies Protect In order to outplay your opponent, it’s often necessary to protect your Pokémon from harm while their partner deals with the Pokémon threatening a KO on them, which brings in the move Protect (and likewise, Detect). It’s also useful for other things such as not taking damage from a spread move, preventing your opponent from gaining momentum with Fake Out, or stalling out weather, Trick Room, Tailwind, Terrain, and Dynamax. When Dynamaxed, any non-attacking move will turn into Max Guard, which is a beefed up version of protect that prevents all damage from max moves (besides Gigantamax Urshifu’s) and even blocks the move Feint, which normally breaks protection. Some popular Dynamax Pokémon will opt to not use Protect and instead use a set up move so they can buff their stats, maximize their offensive options with three attacks, and utilize Max Guard while Dynamaxed so they’re not fully vulnerable. Intimidate Intimidate is an ability that lowers both opposing Pokémon’s attack stat by one stage and it has dominated VGC since its inception. By lowering your opponent’s physical offensive presence simply by sending a Pokémon on the field makes it attractive to use on your team in order to hinder your opponent and boost the survivability of your own Pokémon. While most physical attackers see Intimidate as a thorn in their side and most special attackers are completely unphased by it, some Pokémon thrive off of the thrill of being intimidated. Pokémon with the ability Defiant, such as Bisharp and Braviary, and others with the ability Competitive, such as Milotic and some Gothitelle, will get a +2 boost to their Attack or Special Attack respectively as a countermeasure to fend off intimidators. Speed Control In Singles, moves that control the speed on the field like Trick Room and Tailwind are seldom seen because the user will be the one who has to try to utilize that time. In VGC, however, these moves, in addition to moves like Icy Wind and Electroweb, are seen on nearly every team. While a more threatening, offensive Pokémon can keep attacking, their partner is able to use these speed control moves. These few turns of Tailwind and Trick Room are also more suited to VGC because of how impactful those turns are in a shorter match. On top of moves, weather activated speed-boosting abilities, Chlorophyll, Swift Swim, Slush Rush, and Sand Rush, are all fantastic methods of pseudo-speed control. In generation 8 in particular, these speed control tactics excel due to the mechanical change of real-time speed changes. In the past, if Tailwind went into effect at the beginning of the turn, it would not benefit the Pokémon affected by it until the next turn. However, each speed check is now made before each Pokémon moves making them able to benefit from Tailwind the same turn it is used and the drops from Icy Wind and the like also take effect immediately. This effect is also shared by the weather activated abilities allowing for a Pokémon with a weather setting ability to switch in and benefit its partner immediately. Prankster Pokémon with the ability Prankster are able to use Status category moves at a priority of +1 which is utilized heavily by VGC players when compared to Singles players. With Prankster, Pokémon like Whimsicott and Grimmsnarl are able to impact the flow of the game with their speedy support moves. Common moves used by Prankster Pokémon are Tailwind, Taunt, Light Screen, Reflect, Safeguard, Fake Tears, Charm, Taunt, and Thunder Wave… just to name a few. As a side note, it’s important to know that Reflect and Light Screen (as well as Aurora Veil) only reduces damage by ⅓ in Double Battles as opposed to ½ in Single Battles. Dynamax and how to use it effectively Unlike Smogon formats, Dynamaxing is legal and it defines the current metagame. When Dynamaxed, Pokémon can only use attacks or Max Guard and their current HP and maximum HP are doubled (when their Dynamax Level is 10). Additionally, all Max Moves have secondary effects that make some better than others; some max moves boost stats on the user’s side of the field, others drop stats on the target’s side of the field, and some create field effects like weather or terrain. On top of that, Gigantamax Pokémon can use their own unique G-Max Moves that have different effects from their normal Max Move counterparts. Something to keep in mind with Dynamax is that the Fighting-Type Max Knuckle and the Poison-Type Max Ooze boost Attack and Special Attack respectively, but with the caveat that their base power caps at 100 instead of 150. One quirk to Dynamax that should be mentioned is that any item or move that would heal it does so relative to their pre-Dynamax HP stat. This means, for example, that a Sitrus Berry will restore ⅛ of a Dynamax Pokémon’s HP and Heal Pulse will heal ¼ of its HP. So how do you set a Pokémon up for success to Dynamax? Something like the popular Dusclops with its massive, Eviolite boosted defenses is forced to either protect itself or use its most used attack Night Shade using its pitiful special attack stat; this makes it very ill-suited for Dynamax. Offensive Pokémon, like Excadrill and Tyranitar are terrific Dynamax candidates due to their raw power. Excadrill is fast and hits hard while its max moves, Max Steelspike and Max Quake, allow it to boost its survivability by boosting its defensive stats. Tyranitar, on the other hand, is slower and bulkier which allows it to run a Weakness Policy with its common weaknesses to spread even more damage by retaliating against a super-effective attack. Other Pokémon are able to be used in a different way from their often supportive counterparts by running an offensive moveset with Dynamax in mind. In Togekiss’ case, for example, Dynamax-oriented sets make it an offensive monster instead of a supporter by boosting its normally decent speed to extreme levels with Max Airstream. So what makes a great Dynamax Pokémon? A good offensive presence with moves that compliment its strengths and/or make up for its weaknesses. With that said, Dynamaxing is a helpful defensive tool that can be utilized to stall out your opponent’s Dynamax turns with Max Guard or combat their onslaught of attacks by giving your own Pokémon the HP boost they need to survive an attack or two and fire back to even the playing field. Advanced Tips Team Preview Also known to many as “Turn 0” of the game, analyzing Team Preview to prepare for a match is a valuable skill that many high level players take advantage of to develop a game winning strategy before the game even begins. So what do these players do when posed with their 90 seconds of team preview and the time between games in their set? First and foremost, a great player will identify the Pokémon they need to utilize and preserve in order to shut down their opponent’s team. How that’s done comes next with what support is necessary in order to reach that point or what other Pokémon need to be eliminated to make way for that trump card. Ensuring you bring the right lead two Pokémon and the right back two Pokémon is critical to winning. The next thing that players should look for is what their opponent needs to do to beat their team and bring out countermeasures to prevent that from happening. Another part of that is identifying what the opponent may lead off with and bringing a good opposition to that (without losing to other leads) Of course, this is much easier said than done, so it needs to be practiced in order to come to fruition at a high level. Don’t be discouraged if you don’t get it right away, this is one of the hardest things to do in Pokémon and the random factors and unpredictability of Pokémon make it that much harder to execute the strategies you conjure once the game starts. Be sure to use as much of the time you can in Team Preview to maximize your time to strategize, but be careful not to run out of time! EV Spreads When looking at popular teams, you may find yourself wondering what on Earth the distribution of their stats does. Why does it have all of those specific EVs across near every stat!? A lot of high level players calculate their Pokémon’s stats to survive popular attacks from other Pokémon or get the knock outs they need against Pokémon in a vacuum and to outspeed or underspeed opposing Pokémon both with and without speed control/boosts. While these can be influential, it’s important not to be bogged down with these numbers when putting your team together. A simple placement of 252, 252, and the extra 4 into another stat is just fine to hop into the game and start playing. If you really want to refine your stats, the biggest thing to focus on is your speed stat very often, but practice means so much more than some stat numbers. Teambuilding Tips When taking teambuilding into consideration for VGC, a lot differs from Single Battles you may be used to. Singles teams tend to focus on two primary roles: sweepers and walls. In VGC, those terms - more times than not - fall to the wayside. Your standard sweeper has to be ready to take on two Pokémon at once and be able to survive through any Protect predictions their opponent makes. On the other end of the spectrum, you have passive walls which can either be ignored by the opponent’s offensive onslaught until their three partners are knocked out or they can be handled quickly by double targeting into them. The most prevalent Pokémon in VGC are able to find a middle ground of offensive pressure and defensive staying power. The roles of Pokémon in VGC boil down to support and damage. Supporters range from redirection users like Amoonguss and Togekiss to speed control users such as Whimsicott and Dusclops. Next to those you’ll have your damage dealers like Dragapult and Rhyperior. These Pokémon are all incredible at what they do as they don’t simply just support or do damage. Good supportive Pokémon can still encourage some offensive pressure, Togekiss with Dazzling Gleam or Dusclops with Night Shade, and the damaging Pokémon are able to do damage and stay on the field, Dragapult by taking out threats before they can move and Rhyperior with its humongous physical bulk and its ability Solid Rock. So that’s what makes certain Pokémon great for VGC, but how do you build a team with them? Every great team starts around the idea of a Pokémon or a concept and how it can carve out a strong role for itself among the popular Pokémon being used, whether it’s one of those popular Pokémon or strategies or not. After that’s identified, a good teambuilder will begin covering the weaknesses of the Pokémon, what it/they need for support in terms of redirection, speed control, or anything else. The things to ask oneself when teambuilding are the following:
Are there any glaring weaknesses I have to certain types or specific Pokémon?
Am I over preparing for one specific type of team or Pokémon?
Do I have Pokémon that are fast enough to to outspeed others and, if not, do I have the durability to withstand them?
Do I have a form of speed control on my team and, if not, could my team be improved by it?
Do each of my Pokémon fill a crucial role on the team and could that role be improved through the use of a different Pokémon?
Am I asking too much of my Pokémon? In other words: are any of my Pokémon built to have too many roles?
Do any Pokémon or move choices of mine conflict with each other, such as using a Pokémon with the ability Psychic Surge on a team with a lot of priority moves or an Earthquake user with no Pokémon immune to ground nor Protect?
A few other things I want to address are “stealing” teams, using your favorites, and asking for help with your team. On the concept of “stealing” teams: nobody owns a team; there is nothing wrong or immoral about taking a team you see and like and using it for yourself. Some people may want to build their own team and have success with it without any help, but - if you really want to win - you have to cast aside that pride. As for using your favorites - especially when reaching out to others for help, again, if you really want to win - that’s fine if you truly think it can serve a function that no other popular, proven Pokémon can. If you solely want to use it because it’s your favorite, others may struggle to help you build a team around it as it may be overshadowed by other Pokémon in the metagame. To speak on asking for help, if you’re newer to the game and need help with what moves or items are good, that’s separate from what I’m about to discuss. When asking for help solely concerning team composition, the most important thing to do beforehand with a team is simple: try the team first. It’s important for both you and the person/people to understand where the team is weak in terms of match ups or Pokémon on your team not doing their jobs. Without that, it will simply be a matter of theory rather than observed examples that can assist in the improvement of your team’s structure. Note taking Some players like taking notes during their matches to help them remember useful information and sometimes new players are curious what types of important information they’re writing down. Here’s a list of popular things that those seasoned players like to take notes on:
All six opposing Pokémon at team preview to save time from in-game menus
What Pokémon are switched out from the opponent to recall what they brought
If a Pokémon outspeeds/speed ties their own Pokémon
How much damage an attack did if it was an unexpectedly high or low amount
The items Pokémon may be or are confirmed to be or not be holding
Moves that are seen from opposing Pokémon that may not be expected
Keep in mind, not every player at the top is big on note taking so it’s nothing that separates the elite players from the average player. How to improve A lot of times players ask themselves what they can do to improve how they play VGC. Is it their team that needs to be improved? Sometimes, maybe, but if they’re handed the World Championships winning team, what can they do to get better? The first answer is obvious: keep practicing. The more you play, the more you’re going to learn through sheer experience alone and nothing can substitute for good practice. To practice to the full effect, many top players quote the mantra “work smarter, not harder,” meaning that you shouldn’t always play so much you get exhausted, but rather play a handful of games and analyze them in depth to determine how you could have won lost games or secured victories more safely. That’s not always easy to do yourself, so asking in the Pokémon Showdown chat room may find you success while it may be helpful to post on the VGC subreddit. There’s no great centralized place for VGC help, but reaching out is the best thing you can do. Another way to improve is to try out different types of teams. While you may feel really comfortable with a team already, going outside of your comfort zone is a fantastic way to push your mind into understanding how different Pokémon function on different teams giving you an all around knowledge of teams you may face. Who knows, you may just find your new favorite team in the process, too! In Person VGC Events Due to COVID-19, VGC events that take place in person are not taking place. We currently don’t know the structure of how official tournaments will be implemented during this trying time; whether they’ll be postponed or an online circuit will come about is unknown. With that said, here’s how official, in person events operate. Do you need to qualify for tournaments? Other than the World Championships which are held once per year, you do not need to qualify for any VGC Tournaments. All you have to do is simply sign up and (sometimes) pay an entry fee to attend them! So how do I qualify for the World Championships? Currently, you must play in officially sanctioned Play! Pokémon tournaments and earn enough Championship Points (CP) by placing well enough at them. The amount of CP you get from an event based on your placement depends on the level of the event and the amount of players. This information can be found here: https://www.pokemon.com/us/play-pokemon/pokemon-events/pokemon-tournaments/earn-championship-points-vg/ What kinds of tournaments are there? There are five levels of live VGC tournaments other than the World Championships. From lowest to highest CP payout: Premier Challenges (PC), Midseason Showdowns (MSS), Regional Championships (Regionals) and Special Events (SPE), and International Championships (Internationals, Internats, or Nats). In addition to these, there are also online International Challenges which are done all online via Battle Stadium using a ranking ladder to determine standings. Premier Challenges and Midseason Showdowns are held at a local level and are not directly run by TPCi while Regionals, Special Events, and Internationals are larger tournaments with a much higher payout that are run by TPCi. How do I know when and where tournaments are? On https://www.pokemon.com you can select the Play! Pokémon Events tab at the top of your screen for more information on Regionals, SPEs, and International level Play! Pokémon tournaments. For information on local events, you can search your area using this link: https://www.pokemon.com/us/play-pokemon/pokemon-events/find-an-event/ Tournament Structure Official Pokémon tournaments, as well as most community-run events, use a Swiss structure followed by a top cut bracket. Swiss is a format in which there is no elimination, but instead you play one opponent every round - the amount of rounds varies depending on the amount of entrants - and try to have the best win/loss ratio you can get. You may hear people say they want to “go X-2” because a record with only two losses usually has a good chance at top cut in large tournaments, may automatically qualify you for said top cut or the next day of larger tournaments, or will guarantee you an amount of CP. Top cut is a single elimination bracket that pits players against each other based on where they stand in seeding and is often played on a separate day at events above the MSS level. Official events are almost always played as Best of 3 sets meaning that you need to beat your opponent twice in order to win that round. With that said, the four Pokémon you choose in your first game do not need to be used in games two or three, so trying different strategies is encouraged. Timers There are a few timers in VGC: team preview time, move selection time, your time and match time. Team preview lasts 90 seconds which you are allotted to select what four Pokémon you will bring to each game and does not impact any other timer. When selecting your moves, you have 45 seconds to confirm your selections. During this time Your Time runs and is a 7 minute timer. If your time runs out, you lose the battle. The match time varies based on each tournament (usually 15 minutes), but at official tournaments is 20 minutes; it runs once the first move selections of the game are available and does not stop throughout the match. If the match timer expires, the match is determined through a hierarchy of checks made by the game itself. In the case of the match timer expiring, whoever has more Pokémon at the end of time wins. If that number is equal, then whoever has the highest percentage of total team HP remaining wins. Other Helpful Resources
Definition 1: The ratio of the observed number of failures (“deaths”) divided by the expected number of failures d/e (using the terminology from Log-Rank Test) is called the failure rate. For two survival distributions, the ratio of the failure rates is called the hazard ratio (aka the relative risk or risk ratio), i.e. Hazard Ratio Calculator. Use this hazard ratio calculator to easily calculate the relative hazard, confidence intervals and p-values for the hazard ratio (HR) between an exposed/treatment and control group. One and two-sided confidence intervals are reported, as well as Z-scores based on the log-rank test. Since the hazard is a function of time, the hazard ratio, say, for exposed versus unexposed, is also a function of time; it may be different at different times of follow up. For example, if the exposure is some surgery (vs. no surgery), the hazard ratio of death may take values as follows: Time since baseline Hazard ratio 1 day 9 2 days 3.5 Calculate Sample Size Needed to Test Time-To-Event Data: Cox PH, Equivalence. You can use this calculator to perform power and sample size calculations for a time-to-event analysis, sometimes called survival analysis. A two ... the primary parameter of interest is called the hazard ratio. The Hazard ratio (HR) is one of the measures that in clinical research are most often difficult to interpret for students and researchers. In this post we will try to explain this measure in terms of its practical use. You should know what the Hazard Ratio is, but we will repeat it again. Let’s take […] p-value computed using the likelihood ratio test whether the hazard ratio is different from 1. n : number of samples used for the estimation. coxm : coxph.object fitted on the survival data and x (see below). data : list of data used to compute the hazard ratio (x, surv.time and surv.event). A hazard ratio is the ratio of two hazard functions where a hazard function describes the chances of an event occurring within a group at a particular time. It’s commonly used to evaluate the effect of a particular drug on a disease. Hazard Ratio (i.e. the ratio of hazards) = Hazard in the intervention group ÷ Hazard in the control group Hazard represents the instantaneous event rate, which means the probability that an individual would experience an event (e.g. death/relapse) at a particular given point in time after the intervention, assuming that this individual has survived to that particular point of time without experiencing any event. The hazard ratio is the ratio of (chance of an event occurring in the treatment arm)/ (chance of an event occurring in the control arm) (20 ). The HR has also been defined as, the ratio of (risk of outcome in one group)/ (risk of outcome in another group), occurring at a given interval of time ( 21 ). Hazard ratio is a ratio of two hazard functions HR(t) = 1(t;x 1) 2(t;x 2) (3.1) and we remind the reader that the hazard function is defined as (t;x) = lim +t!0 P(t T<t+ tjT t;X= x) t and that hazard is connected to the survival function via the following formula S(t;x) = e: 1)) = 1 1) = + p)
This is a short presentation on hazard ratio, its uses, interpretation, and a talk about some relevant concepts. Olly Tree Applications presents USMLE Biostatistics... a unique, yet easy to use study tool for the USMLE. It is completely free and comes with absolutely no... Watch as we use -stptime- to calculate incidence rates with confidence intervals and -stir- to calculate incidence-rate ratios with confidence intervals usin... Ref: Student4bestevidence.net This video provides a demonstration of the use of the Cox proportional hazards model using SPSS. The data comes from a demonstration of this model within the... How to easily calculate and retrieve useful information from survival curves using absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat (NNT).This is a practic...